The Russia-Ukraine War: An Exploratory Study into the Potential Impact of Cyber Warfare on Asymmetric War Efforts

Susan Snyman

doi:10.25159/2663-6689/15567

Authors

Susan Snyman IIE’s Varsity College Pretoria https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2164-8151

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25159/2663-6689/15567

Keywords:

cyber warefare, combatant, asymmetric warefare, kinetic warfare, malware

Abstract

Purpose: The war in Ukraine brought attention to “new” tactics on the battlefield—namely cyber warfare. It is attracting increased attention from media and civilians, enabling civilians from countries outside of Ukraine to help fight for Ukraine. The impact of cyber warfare on kinetic war efforts is not well understood.

Methodology: Secondary data were collected, which included verified reports of cyber interventions in support of either party to the Russian-Ukraine war. Various cyber interventions are discussed in terms of the type of intervention, modus operandi, and potential effect. All data have been published in English by credible sources. The effect of cyber interventions will be analysed to determine their potential impact on states that are party to an asymmetrical war.

Findings: Cyber warfare can potentially act as a force multiplier in kinetic efforts through actionable intelligence collected. Currently, the effect of cyber warfare seems to be negligible, as neither party to the Russian-Ukraine war effort has achieved its political ideologies. In fact, the use of drones has brought about an escalation in violence.

Implications: A better understanding of cyber interventions and more effective application of these in a kinetic war could potentially aid a nation-state in achieving its ideological objectives faster, thereby reducing the intensity of the negative socioeconomic impact on nation-states not party to the conflict. Current scholarly debates about cyber warfare view the impact of cyber interventions in a kinetic effort as negligible. This article will point to a linchpin that could change the current opinion of scholars.

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