Urban Expansion and Water Scarcity in the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area, Uganda: An Analysis of the Nexus

Nestor Mugabe; Mavhungu Elias Musitha

doi:10.25159/2663-6689/19856

Authors

Nestor Mugabe Makerere University https://orcid.org/0009-0005-7089-0656
Mavhungu Elias Musitha University of South Africa https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6887-9865

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25159/2663-6689/19856

Keywords:

urban expansion patterns, water scarcity, urban planning, Uganda

Abstract

Urban water scarcity is a pressing sustainability challenge, particularly in rapidly growing cities of the Global South, where unplanned urbanisation, population growth and weak governance exacerbate pressures on freshwater resources. This study investigates the relationship between urban expansion patterns and water scarcity in the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area in Uganda. Guided by the integrated urban water governance theory, the research employs a mixed-methods design combining quantitative surveys of 400 households, qualitative data from 15 key informant interviews and eight focus-group discussions. Water scarcity was measured using the water scarcity index, encompassing availability, accessibility, affordability and reliability. Results indicate that infilling patterns have no significant impact on water scarcity, whereas extension and linear expansion patterns significantly reduce scarcity. Conversely, sprawl and large-scale project developments strongly exacerbate water scarcity. These findings highlight that coordinated and structured urban expansion through extension and linear patterns enhances water access and reduces economic and physical scarcity, while unplanned growth intensifies both access and affordability challenges. Qualitative data corroborate these trends, revealing household experiences of long distances to water sources, high costs and unreliable supply. The study contributes to the theory by linking urban expansion patterns to multidimensional water scarcity and informs policy by providing evidence for urban planning and water management interventions. Recommendations include integrating water resource planning into urban expansion policies, conducting water impact assessments for large-scale projects, and promoting structured growth patterns that align with existing water infrastructure to enhance sustainable urban water supply in rapidly urbanising contexts.

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